• Harry Milne

Focus Strategy Thoughts Update | June 30, 2021

Updated: Jul 1

We saw

Exceptional opportunities April 2020.... Acted, Accomplished +48% to June '21


  • Focused approach Active management Risk Management

  • +10.48% YTD June 30, 2021 is near our target for low-risk, Absolute returns

  • Same as we did when launched Strategy March 31, ’09 and deployed Cash for KIA

  • More Selective now, +48% Mar '20-Jun'21 now leaves less opportunity than all of 2020

  • July '21 Conservation mode.... Security Selection + Conserve Capital + Income


Approach

  • Total Return Oriented

  • Yield as an important component

  • Macro View, Top Down process

  • Focus on disproportionate reward

  • Controlled risk, attractive reward

  • We Buy when attractive fundamentals + technical “buy”

  • We Protect or sell when investment is “rich” relative to risk


What is Different May 7 2021 vs. March 25, 2020

  • Continue to Avoid EM exposure

  • Continue to Position for the “new” global economy

  • Underweight Banks

  • Reduced cash as Late March & April '21 presented attractive levels

  • Continue to Barbell Yield and Growth

  • Largest Energy Holding, Chevron (+33% from Mar 25, 2020)


What is Different April, 2020 vs. March 31, 2009

Securities that are the Same as we held Launch March 31, 2009 when we saw similar opportunity

  • Capital Growth focus

  • Overweight USD Equity

  • Include AAPL | Fortress Balance sheet, New economy Growth

  • Include PGF | Financials are too big to fail… 6% yield compounds monthly

  • Include Energy | Oil March ‘20 below the depth of the Great Recession

  • Include PLD | REITS posed for more losses, Industrial safer than 4 other sectors


Strategy View March 31, 2009


View 2009


Strategy View 12 of the 13 selected. March 25 to May 8, 2020


Focused, Yield + Growth


Strategy View Yield was cheap Mar 2009. KO vs. PGF


Strategy View Yield was cheap Mar 2009. KO vs PGF


Strategy View Energy was cheap KO and S&P vs. CVX +33%


Managing Risk is the Key


Risk Abating Upon Medical results


Focus Portfolio Investment

Focus Selection


Focus – Principal Investment Strategies


  • Invest in public equities, public funds, options and ETF’s.

  • Invest primarily in U.S. common stocks.

  • Concentrating portfolio opportunities in non-diversified opportunities when opportunities are uncovered, broad market ETF’s when opportunities are broad.

  • Top down approach to focus on industries and sectors where economic conditions or valuation has opened an opportunity for return prospects well in excess broad markets.

  • Non-traditional approach to cash


Filter – Focus on Sector and Company Opportunities


  • Attractive fundamentals

  • Excellent prospects

  • Strong franchise or intellectual property

  • Proven management

  • Consistent cash flow

  • Industries where the near term macro economic drivers will add to investment returns

  • Strong balance sheet, not dependent on high leverage


Pathway to best possible Success Selection & Risk Management


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